On Tuesday morning the Fifa
Council met in Zurcih and voted unanimously to expand the World Cup from
32 teams to 48 teams from 2026 onwards. While there is no doubt that the
club game now dominates the footballing landscape in every way, the
four-yearly meeting of nations from all around the globe is still a huge
deal, particularly for Fifa and their cash reserves. New president Gianni Infantino
used the expansion as one of his key marketing tools during his
campaign for election and he has now been vindicated. While full details
won’t emerge for some time yet, here is everything you need to know
about how the biggest sporting event in the world will play out from
2026.
First off, how will the format change?
The World Cup is currently played
between 32 countries with eight groups of four. The top two in each
group then advance to the last 16 before the quarter-finals, semi-finals
and final. You k now the drill.
However, from 2026, the influx of
16 extra teams will mean that the number of groups will be doubled to 16
(that means that there will be such things as Group O and Group P) with
three nations in each.
Each nation will play each other
once before the top two advance to the new last-32 knockout stage and
from there to the final it is the same as the current version.
So, essentially, it’s kind of like the current format just going straight into a knockout stage?
In a lot of ways, yes. You can be
rest assured that seeding will ensure we don’t see the likes of Germany,
Spain and Brazil all drawn together in Group M with Saudi Arabia,
Suriname and Dijbouti in Group N. It’s highly unlikely that any of the
big nations from Europe or South America will manage to get themselves
knocked out in groups of three with the top two advancing.
However, what it does throw up is a
stronger possibility of teams finishing tied on the exact same points,
head-to-head records and goal difference.
For example, imagine a group made up of Germany, Ireland the USA.
Now imagine Germany beat both Ireland and the US 2-0 and, in the final game of the group, a 43-year-old Wes Hoolahan
pops up to score a last minute equaliser against a United States team
personally hand-picked by president/men’s national team coach Donald
Trump.
Okay, just imagine Ireland and the USA draw 1-1.
That means both teams will finish the group with identical records. What happens then?
Well, this is where Infantino, in his wisdom, has a plan. The man who replaced Sepp Blatter as Fifa chief is proposing that all drawn games during the group stages are decided by a penalty shootout.
While this idea has been much
derided it’s worth noting that it’s a fairer system than the drawing of
lots currently used in international competitions to separate teams with
identical records.
So what are the benefits of the new format?
Well, Infantino says his
motivation for expansion is to give more countries a chance of
experiencing the World Cup, which will bolster international football in
developed markets and assist the growth in emerging areas. Fair enough.
There is also the small side-note
of the extended tournament expected to bring in an extra €920million
more in broadcasting, commercial and match-day revenue, according to
research from Fifa.
Does it mean we will have more football to watch?
It does. Under the current model
there are a total of 64 games played at the World Cup. In the brainchild
of Infantino that will increase to 80 matches.
So will club managers not be up in arms about their players playing more matches?
They won’t, because, in this case, more matches actually mean less for each nation.
That is because, with 50 per cent
more teams taking part, the average number of matches teams have to play
will fall from four to 3.33.
So more teams means more stadiums are needed, then?
Yes, and this is where England
could benefit. While the FA stated last week that is opposed the motion,
an increased number of teams does help its chances of hosting a first
World Cup since 1966.
England is one of the few countries with the stadiums and infrastructure needed to host 80 football matches between 48 nations.
It’s for that reason that the USA is favourite to host the 2026 tournament.
Is this the first time the World Cup format has changed?
It is not. The expansion of the
World Cup has been constant since the first tournament was played in
1930 and this is simply the next step. While it is quite a big change –
23 per cent of the 211 Fifa registered nations will now compete – it is
not unprecedented.
For the 1934 tournament in Italy the number of teams increased from 13 to 16.
In 1982 that rose again to 24 teams before the current model of 32 teams only came into play at France ’98.
But, most importantly, will this mean Ireland have a better chance of qualifying?
Unfortunately that is something we
don’t know yet and, most likely, will not know for some time. While the
answer is most likely yes, nothing has been confirmed.
There is set to be an almighty
battle between the six confederations for the 16 extra spots with the
general consensus being that Africa and Asia will benefit most as both
are currently under-represented.
At the moment there are 13
qualifying spots available to the 54 teams that take part in European
qualifying. While it is expected that that number will increase to 16,
it will come as a surprise if it’s any more than that.
But it does mean that, in 2026, Ireland could potentially qualify as the 33rd team?
It does indeed. John Delaney’s
request to Sepp Blatter after Thierry Henry’s handball in 2009 may,
finally, become a reality. The chances of a 49th team being allowed in?
Pretty slim.
